Really.. a second question?

Posted on May 12, 2012 by

Salmond has watched the argument being framed in the way he wants it without moving a muscle. The press has decided that the SNP want a third option, and Alex is doing his shoulder shrugging “if the people want it” justification. Cameron sensing something is afoot but unable to put his finger on it bombastically wants a take it or leave it/In or Out/Yes or No.
Although no great desire of the SNP, the 2nd question on the ballot has now become a bargaining chip in negotiations. It gives Salmond an opportunity down the line to concede what he never really pressed for with any great conviction in the first place and we have the 2 option referendum which Unionists have postured over and which is in reality the SNP aim. In the meantime Cameron has made the offer of more powers and a brighter future after the referendum returns a No verdict. What it has done is given the Yes side the opportunity to put pressure on the No lobby to come clean on what is on offer- allow the focus to build to the point where nothing is announced and it becomes the subject of ridicule or some limited powers are promised and the huge anticlimactic devo max loses its appeal.

There is of course the argument being bandied about that the SNP have a neck asking for details when they themselves have not set out the fine print yet. This of course is not a genuine argument. It is quite clear what powers a YES vote will bring, and this is all that is being asked of Cameron “what powers will a NO vote bring?”

The question constantly being asked of the YES camp is “what will you do with the powers?” Given that nobody can forecast which parties will form the first government of a renewed Independent Scotland the question is pointless, although the SNP can offer their vision, as of course could Labour or to stretch the imagination the Lib Dems/Conservatives (it is one party now). It would appear that the other parties are accepting that if the Independence vote is won they will not form a government in the foreseeable future- maybe they need to realign their sights.

Talking of governments – it is a bold move by Cameron to offer additional powers given that there is a general election in 2015. Presumptuous indeed! As far as the sincerity that the offer was made with goes it will make little difference – there is no intention to devolve further powers anyway. In fact if Scotland lacks the conviction, self confidence and drive to accept the chance for self government she will be trampled on for a long time to come. It will be the settled will of the people.

Twitt
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Time for a grown up debate

Posted on May 8, 2012 by

It is time to say thanks to Alex Salmond for bringing us to a point where there will be a referendum. It is also time to remove the reins of the referendum campaign from him and from the SNP as almost sole persuaders. It belongs to all the people of Scotland.

In the 2 years left in the campaign to establish Scotland’s constitutional future, it is not only for the SNP to conjure up the images of how Scotland will look as an independent country, but for those of all parties and none to get involved in proposing the best possible framework to kick off a Scotland fit for our children and grandchildren. Regardless of the outcome of a referendum, it is apparent to all but the dim that the status quo for Scotland, and for the wider UK, is not the way of the future.

The parties must now present their vision to the country and let a fully educated people decide on Scotland’s form of government and its relationship with others. Two years is not a long time to properly develop a framework on which to set out the constitutional future of the country for generations to come. It will assist greatly if the political parties can develop a sense of morality- and take the BBC with them in doing so. The BBC has a key role to perform in providing a means of information, clearly and fairly presenting the cases presented both for and against Independence. The political parties have a moral duty to ensure that this is so.

It is an undoubted truth that there are those in other parties who favour independence, but who will not see Scotland’s future in exactly the same terms as the SNP. They too need to stand up and make their voices heard within their own grouping. Debate being stifled and restricted to black and white along party lines serves nobody well. It demeans the level of the debate and is an insult to the intelligence of what is essentially a far more politically savvy nation than currently presents itself.

Within the Independence movement also there needs to be further full and frank debate. There are many who are firmly pro independence but who are not fully in tune with the changing format that is being proposed for an Independent Scotland. We should not be constrained by a single party view of what a revitalised Scotland will look like. For example, just because Alex Salmond has said that the Monarchy is to remain does not mean that the debate on that is over. Many Nationalists have remained quiet on that issue and some may even genuinely support it for reasons other than pragmatism. Large numbers do not see it as a problem when taken in isolation, others are firmly opposed, and a few may even see it as a deal breaker. Indeed, many of the issues are not problems when taken in isolation, but a combination of choices being made without full debate are fast presenting a view of an independent Scotland that is not in keeping with the aspirations of many.

Monarchy, Currency, Second Chamber,Constitution, Justice System, NATO, Size of the public sector, Defence policy, Nukes, Welfare, Taxation strategy- these are the political and constitutional issues which need to be developed. People need to know where the political parties stand on these and a host of other political and constitutional issues. Not all the issues need to be settled now; the constitutional framework needs to be clearly set out and defined ahead of a referendum but the political issues need not be cast in stone. Neither should we allow the Independence issue to be clouded by the SNP view of the future. Many hold with the party policy on all issues, but to drive people from independence based on a parties political strategy for the future is unnecessary. It is sufficient to know that the people of the country will have a chance to put in power those who offer the vision of a Scotland that is closest to their aspirations. But don’t constrain the choices yet and certainly don’t present the choices of a single party as being the only way ahead in an Independent Scotland. Political choice doesn’t end with the referendum.

Twitt
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Valid non-vote

Posted on May 3, 2012 by

There are a lot of comments doing the rounds about lack of democratic mandate that results from low turnout (It appears that the recent council elections will come in somewhere around 30%). This analysis is however flawed. UK wide electors have the right to vote or not. Why they choose not to is a whole other debate, but given that they do, their non-vote is equally as valid as a vote cast.
The 70% non voting electors cast their votes with the majority by not voting. By their actions they have acquiesced to follow the majority of those who choose to inform themselves and exercise their right to vote.

Twitt
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New Politics

Posted on April 20, 2012 by

There was an article in Friday’s Telegraph in which Peter Osborne asked is Politics on the verge of a breakdown? He goes on to say that one of the main reasons for voters turning away from the main parties is, to use George Galloway’s vernacular, that the big 3 mainstream parties are three cheeks of the same backside. The article is obviously England-centric, although the SNP get a mention relating to being on a course to destroy Labour in Scotland and their rate of growth.

That the clever political analysts are struggling to identify what could possibly be happening is the baffling thing to me. People were previously split along class lines, and that has not changed. What has changed is the class division. Labour previously represented the workers and Conservatives the owners of the capital. What we have come to now is a division between the Political class representing, with some honourable exceptions, the members of their own paymasters and socio-economic grouping and the unrepresented labour force and would-be labour force.

The political class developed such a belief in their own abilities to con the electorate that they stopped trying hard enough. They actually began to believe it was their birthright to own and to control without accountability. How often have we seen smug faces grinning at TV cameras impressing themselves at how clever they are to avoid answering a question- and we have continued to put up with it? Patience has run thin however. The 2 and a bit party system has ensured that elections matter not very much at all. No matter who was returned the financiers and the corporations had their people in place. New Labour , Old Tory, New Liberal Tory- their leadership all cut from the same mould and driven by the same imperative to shore up the banking system and large business whatever the cost to the vast majority of the people in the country.

With the traditionally major parties losing ground maybe the tide has turned. Perhaps the expenses scandals, News International/Metropolitan Police Scandal and the like may have finally shaken the people. The beneficiaries are the previously lesser represented parties SNP, Plaid Cymru, DUP, and the possibility of more Independents running and succeeding in reaching parliament. In fact consider:

Expenses Scandal, Cash for Honours, Cash for questions, Fox/Werity, Phantom family payrolls, Donations Scandals, House flipping, Dodgy Friendships, Revolving boardroom doors for ministers, Health company investments- these are only the ones which are immediately recognisable. That leaves alone the personal affairs that often hit the news, which we can give the benefit of the doubt on and accept them as private business. Remember there are only 600 and odd members in the House of Commons. Can you imagine the offices of a medium sized company with the range and quality of scandals that these people manage? Is it any wonder that citizens have grown tired and ultra cynical, if engaged at all?

The political class have stopped even pretending to a great degree that they need to pacify the workers. however in Scotland we can see the position changing as a result of Holyrood and removing ourselves from the grubby London pocket to some extent. It gives us at least a breath of fresh air if we close our eyes to Westminster. Even Cameron has had to bite his tongue a little, although it is not easy for him clearly when he has spent a lifetime being prepped to be the king of the castle. He will not manage for long to haud his wheesht and every breath he utters north of the border spawns votes for independence.

The Scottish establishment is not yet tainted with the same smell as its southern counterpart. We can be satisfied that the vast majority of politicians on all sides can be considered at least to be on the right side of the law and morality. They may not be of the same highly polished TV politico calibre as their Westminster counterparts- but I would prefer to leave my wallet laying around in Holyrood than the Westminster chamber.

This is where we are fortunate that we can continue to raise voices of dissent against the way Scotland has been governed and produce the ultimate payback in ditching not only the sleazy politicians and their smug ways but the entire establishment that supports them. We have the chance for a fresh start with a whole new set of rules, written in such a way that our representatives do not, and cannot, forget their role and their responsibilities to the people. The greatest question relating to independence is not the currency, the Queen or NATO, but rather how will the new constitution be written, what will it contain as protection for people’s rights. How will the people be empowered?

Twitt
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Kick Scotland, Kick the SNP- so say the Unionists

Posted on April 14, 2012 by

The Economist certainly grabbed attention with its cover page- yes everyone is talking about it. Personally I saw it as adolescent humour- and not worthy of a serious publication. Granted their cartoon covers are often intended to raise a smile, but I think that this one did miss the mark, and I believe that many people could easily have been moderately offended.

What the cover actually did was to misrepresent the thrust of their own analysis of the finances of the Union versus an Independent Scotland contained in the less discussed article. By doing so the journal was also misrepresenting the abilities of the Scottish people by setting out the position that without the Union (i.e. English support) Scotland would collapse- it is of course the old TWTS (too wee…)argument.

Nobody got really hurt but the eye opener is the “Scottish Unionist” applause for the page and all it represents. The bitterness and loathing for the Scottish Nationalists who removed the Labour lifelong right to govern, runs so deep that the Britnats are lining up to offer their Scottish backsides for a daily kicking in the ironically misguided belief that what harms Scotland harms the SNP and therefore must be good. (a.k.a the extended Bain principle). The irony of course is the foaming at the mouth and constant accusations against the SNP that they believe that SNP and Scotland are synonymous terms. In fact there really is no evidence that this is even a moderately held belief within the party. It is clear however that such a belief is far more widely held across the wall in the unionist camp. Kick Scotland Kick the SNP!- which is why they cheer on each denigrating statement that flows from the mouths of those that hold Scotland and her people in very low esteem.

Twitt
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Trimble off course

Posted on March 24, 2012 by

While David Trimble came out of the cessation of violence in Northern Ireland fairly well, his foray into the question of Scottish independence is misguided.

Scottish nationalists do a “violence” to their identity in seeking independence claims Trimble – although obviously he never used the “I” word – The unionists, (a company by the way which Labour now seem to be settling into nicely), have their own tired and comical lexicon when it comes to the issue of independence, and are keen to separate themselves from the normal use of English language.

It was apparent from the outset that there would be those that seek to liken the Scottish independence question to the years of separation of the 6 northern counties from the rest of Ireland, (no suggestion of an independent six so the use of the word separate is justified in this case ).

The statement would have been less offensive had it come from someone who was in a less informed position. It appears that it may not be too long before the suggestions start appearing that, given the right nudges, we stand at risk of plummeting into the same type of turmoil that they have faced in Ireland since what seems like time immemorial. We have lessons to learn from the way that Irish independence was resisted by the British, and would do well to be mindful of the alarm bells that should ring when we see certain tacks of argument adopted.

Trimble conveniently seems to overlook the point that even within Northern Ireland there are a very large minority who would balk at the suggestion of Britishness, shared or otherwise. In Scotland there is a similar lack of fervour amongst many for what membership of the British political entity represents. I understand that he now sees himself as a pillar of the British establishment- Yet another member of the great unelected who has more importance attached to his pronouncements than they warrant, by virtue of his ermine.

His insistence that NI is where it is because the unionists won the political argument stretches credibility a little. The province is where it is because of the millions of pounds poured into NI and the bending over backwards of both the British and Irish governments to accommodate the tribal bigotry that his enclave swam in, mostly blind to true political argument. This together with the war weariness of activists on both sides involved in the long and dirty war created the half-way-house solution now employed- not the winning of any political argument.

The NI case is as far divorced from Scotland’s call for independence as it is possible to be. If there is any political similarity we need to look many years prior to Mr Trimble’s involvement, and it is to the early days of the Free State and the Republic that provide the political imperatives for study. Hopefully the temperament, tolerance and intelligence of the people on both sides will avoid any of the pitfalls which caused the suffering of the Irish people over the years. When we see people nudging to suggest otherwise we should be very wary and loud in condemnation indeed.

Twitt
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Cross border

Posted on March 20, 2012 by

Amongst the Scare stories, the impenetrable border and the prospect of Jack-booted border patrols make an appearance every couple of weeks. A vast army beating back the Scottish hordes clamouring to leave the newly established third world nation. They will be implementing tartan controls and seizing contraband whisky by the tanker load. On the stroke of an independent midnight in Scotland, (23:15 RUK time) all passports will be seized, cross border family ties cut and road signs converted to Scots and Gaelic. Pounds sterling will be traded in for coconuts. This will of course not apply in Orkney and Shetland whose inhabitants will be forced to develop a cockney cadence overnight. Or so what passes for thinking Unionism would have us believe.

However, let us for a moment stumble out of the mists of cloud cuckoo land and back to the green and pleasant land on both sides of the border.

Following a vote in favour of Independence the Scottish Government will be empowered to form a negotiation team, which presumably will be drawn from the talents of all parties and perhaps none.

Negotiations will ensue to establish the best deal possible for Scotland. This is far from assured to be an easy ride to reach a fair and equitable solution There are many complications in for example, resolving maritime boundary disputes, sharing international bases, apportioning national debt, moving the nuclear deterrent to elsewhere (Scapa Flow if the Lib Dems get their way).

There is also the huge logistic exercise of booking trains for Foulkes, Forsythe and Wallace of Tankerness. There will be a special Megabus laid on for the jock riff raff in the commons. (Danny Alexander is currently striving to qualify for a train ticket).

If the lead up to the referendum is a dirty fight- and there is guaranteed to be much biting and gouging from possibly the worlds greatest exponents of diplomatic deceit- wait until the negotiations start. By that time there is nothing to lose and much to win or hold by sheer force. It is not beyond the realms of possibility that International assistance may be needed to secure a fair settlement with recourse to international law where required. For those that are screaming to ditch the monarchy as the independence clock strikes, be aware that a Queen may be a good card to be holding- don’t stack too early.

Oh, and on the question of the passport and cross border scare stories- one of the cyber legal minds may be able to point to the law that will remove UK citizenship from those who wish to retain it. There will certainly be a time of transition- which if the Irish model is anything to go by may well be a very extended period. I strongly believe that the right to a British passport, for those so minded, will last longer than Auntie Enid in Great Yarmouth, so the summer holidays won’t become a problem until the grandchildren are grown.

Twitt
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Flipping positions

Posted on March 12, 2012 by

As it stands just now the Nationalists control many of the key issues – primarily the timing of a vote. We can see the groundwork being prepared by the UK government to establish their negotiating tokens in case the process goes beyond a referendum and approval is given by the electorate to negotiate terms for an end to the union. The UK government will now ensure that a careful balance is struck between any further powers being ceded or potential bargaining chips given up and the need to appear not to be hammering the Scots in advance of the referendum.

Michael Moore’s early interjection with his suggestion that there would need to be two referendums is maybe not beyond consideration, and may even be to Nationalist advantage. Although Mr Moore seems to have gone mute over the proposal of late.

Without a clear idea of what the relative wealth of an independent Scotland would be, what assets it would walk away with, what share of the national debt, where the national and maritime boundaries fall, what the constitutional position is viz a viz the monarchy, what the starting status will be within the EU, what the economic and currency basis will be etc. make it less than straightforward for anyone to answer a simple Go or Stay question. An SNP paper may put clarity to some of these items but many must be the subject of negotiation. It would seem therefore that the consent to proceed in principle is the key. The resultant leap after negotiations would surely need the vote of the Scottish people to maintain the sovereignty of the people as paramount over such an important issue. It is difficult to envisage the Scots saying “Yes” to Independence in principal and giving consent to proceed to negotiations then not actually liking the package to the point that they decide that “actually we made a mistake and would like to maintain the status quo after all, thank you very much”. However, given the apparent safety net of a second referendum it would make it easier for even the meekest among the electorate to put their X in the Yes to independence (subject to a satisfactory settlement) box. The psychology of the position and the momentum built then makes it difficult to back-track. This also weakens the UK hand; a “No” to the settlement in a second referendum is in fact no longer a “No” to independence but a mandate for the Scottish government to push for more favourable terms, maybe longer coming but assured nonetheless.

The second referendum also removes the need for a second question on the first ballot. Given that what unionist organization there is has come out against a two question referendum, the Nationalists may well decide that the all or nothing approach will stand a far better chance of acceptance. The more one side can give without being detrimental to their own arguments and position the more reasonable they appear- pick your battles as it were.

There is anyway much support for a single question amongst nationalists. What is the worst that can happen from a nationalist viewpoint? – The status quo is already accepted by virtually all participants in the conversation as not being an option, so come what may Scotland’s government will end this term with far more powers than it started with- and that is even if the arguments are lost.
(First written July 2011)

Twitt
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Yes it is abuse!

Posted on March 10, 2012 by

I am a few days behind in the news and still picking the bones out of the incredible hurt caused by Joan McAlpine to the seemingly hyper-sensitive Unionist family.
Apparently abusive relationship metaphors are out. I have to find myself agreeing that Joan’s analogy is somewhat stretched and slightly misdirected. This is not a Scotland versus England thing and Scotland is not being abused by England. England is simply another constituent part of the Union, in fact politically there is no England. In terms of power over its own affairs England has less than Scotland, because it has been subsumed into the monolithic Yoo Kay, operated by and on behalf of the political class and their paymasters.

It is this monolith that wields the abusive power but Scotland does not suffer alone; the people of the other constituent nations suffer equally. We are all being abused but Scotland is alone in having a road carved before it that can lead us to a better place for the country. We have travelled a long way down the road and the rest of it is becoming better defined and more clearly marked by the day.

The pretence that the UK government acts in the interests of the people, has been all but formally declared as absolute nonsense. The government is there to ensure favourable conditions for big business and the “wealth creators”. The problem is that the pretence of trickle down is also now declared as a myth. We are left with the wealth creators being cosseted while most of the remainder of the population continue to enjoy the privilege of food on the table – but for many only just. The dream of growing into a wealth creator or at least feasting alongside them has long gone. Say thank you for any crumbs that come your way. They have finally balanced supply and demand of labour just on the fulcrum that they want.

Scotland is to date more free from the influence and power wielding lobbies than the Westminster gravy train. The Scottish government has not yet got into the pocket lining revolving door methods of representational government. Neither does it have as many paymasters nor foreign government influences to bow and bend the knee to in order to maintain the façade of being a world power. It will take hard work and much scrutiny to keep it clean and accountable and therefore that power of scrutiny and openness is one of the key devices that must be written into the new constitution after independence is won. Scotland should not be able to find itself on the end of governmental behaviour akin to the suppression of the McCrone report or the random disregarding of FOI powers based on political expediency and personal protection of high ranking reputations.

Is it utopian to think that we may see a return to the days of conviction politicians in this small strong nation of ours? We can demand a more accountable parliament and the size of the country makes it far easier for us to manage our government through direct access to the political machine. “I knew your faither” has a completely different meaning in Scotland than amongst those that played cricket on the playing fields of Eton.
The sense of community and belonging that is evident in small nations is evidently missing in the superpowers and has-been superpowers. That truly will be one of the benefits of the dissolution of the union. A new revitalised Scotland established with a constitution that will enforce open government working for the good of the entire population. While we are about it we may well be doing our kin in the other UK nations a favour by creating the climate that will enforce change and independence free of the stigma of the bygone empire.

Twitt
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Willie the Guarantor- Ha!

Posted on March 4, 2012 by

Willie Rennie says that Liberal Democrats would advance their own arguments for substantial devolution to make Scotland “a powerful force within the United Kingdom”.

And maybe he actually believes that they are in a position to do that. If he does, he really is not to be congratulated on his foresight. The fact is that the Lib Dems are enjoying their 15 minutes of fame and power just now at the expense of their future. The chances of a coalition evolving in the next Westminster parliament are slim, and forget power through numbers: they have sacrificed nearly all that is held dear in Liberal hearts. Subsequently, their chances of seeing power again before turn of the decade carries about the same odds as Rangers winning the SPL this season. In fact Independence may well be their saving grace where it allows them to draw a line under what has gone before- Clean slates all round. In reality, Willie is not in a position to be the guarantor of anything that calls for even a modicum of influence.

As for Malcolm Bruce and his attempts to draw parallels between Scotland and South Ossetia, Kashmir and Chechnya in “a growing list of tiny countries nursing their grievances”. Despicable is about the best word I can summon for that. Mr Bruce needs to go home put his feet up and reflect on the fact that he has nothing positive to offer Scotland’s future. If the best the man can summon as positive case for the union is that Scotland may cut itself off from the BBC I would say… QED the case for Independence.

Twitt
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